This episode’s guest is Elaine Deschamps, Executive Director of the Washington State Caseload Forecast Council, an independent state agency. Elaine has spent 25 years in public service, previously as Senior Fiscal Analyst for the Washington State Senate Ways and Means Committee, in charge of the low-income health care and public health budgets.
Elaine explains how public service forecasting works and the role of judgment and scenario planning in policy settings. Also, we talk a bit about a “new normal” in the Covid era and the challenges it imposes on forecasters.
Elaine recommends “Foresight” Guidebooks, especially “Improving Your Forecasting Process”, “Forecasting Methods Tutorials”, and “Forecast Accuracy Measurement: Pitfalls to Avoid and Practices to Adopt”.