Forecasting Impact
Forecasting Impact is a bimonthly podcast that aims to disseminate the science and practice of forecasting by introducing prominent academics, practitioners, and visionaries in the forecasting domain. Our vision is to help grow the forecasting community, foster collaboration between academia, industry, and governments, and promote scientific forecasting and good practices.
We will discuss a range of forecasting topics in economics, supply chain, energy, social goods, AI, machine learning, data analytics, education, healthcare, and more.
Forecasting Impact episodes are also available on the IIF YouTube Channel @IIForecasters.
Podcast Team
Chair and Co-host: Dr. Laila Ahadi-Akhlaghi, Senior Technical Advisor at JSI.
Additional co-hosts:
- Dr. Mahdi Abolghasemi, Lecturer in Data Science at The University of Queensland,
- George Boretos, Founder & CEO at FutureUP,
- Dr. Faranak Golestaneh, Data Science Senior Manager at Commonwealth Bank of Australia,
- Mariana Menchero, Senior Forecaster at Nixtla, and
- Arian Sultan Khan, Data Analyst at VAN
Co-hosts in the past have included: Michał Chojnowski, Shari De Baets, Elaine Deschamps, Dr. Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, Anna Sroginis, and Sarah Van der Auweraer.
We welcome your feedback, questions, and suggestions. Please contact us at forecastingimpact@forecasters.org
Forecasting Impact
Prediction Markets with Alex McCullough
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In this episode of Forecasting Impact, hosts Mariana Menchero and Laila Akhlaghi speak with Alex McCullough about his research on prediction markets, probabilistic forecasting, and the crypto ecosystem. He is best known for his work analyzing the accuracy of Polymarket, where he has built widely referenced dashboards to evaluate market calibration and performance. Through his analysis, Alex helps bring rigor and transparency to the discussion around how prediction markets perform as forecasting tools. Alex's work includes the following dashboards:
Initial dashboard: https://dune.com/alexmccullough/how-accurate-is-polymarket
And the widely referenced Brier Score dashboard: https://dune.com/alexmccullough/polymarket-brier-score